Posts tagged…Policy
What the carbon caps will cost
Sun, Feb 08 2009
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The Reserve Bank of Australia's quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (6 Feb, 09) contains the latest estimate—using the Treasury model, is my guess:
"Overall, assuming an emissions permit price of $25 per tonne of CO2-e, it is estimated that the net result will be to reduce GDP growth by…
Read more…Gary Banks on evidence-based policy
Thu, Feb 05 2009
About two-thirds the way through his paper on how to make ‘evidence-based policy’, given as an address a couple of days ago to the Australia/New Zealand School of Government, Gary Banks, the Chair of the Productivity Commission quotes a sardonic aphorism of Keynes:
“There is nothing a Government hates more than to be well-informed; for it makes the process of arriving at decisions much more…
Should you be worried about salt?
Thu, Feb 05 2009This post is may seem a little 'off-topic'. But please bear with me a moment. It's about 'evidence-based' public policy.
I find that working on international trade and trade policies places a premium on good evidence as the basis of good public policy. There is a lot of b.s. in the political economy of trade (no surprise). The very first thing to do is to look at the evidence—"who gains and who…
Keep your money in a sock
Wed, Feb 04 2009Moldova has been ranked by London's Banker magazine among the countries best protected from the global downturn thanks to its rudimentary financial system.
"…Veaceslav Ionita, an analyst with IDIS Viitorul, a think tank in the Moldovan capital, was scathing about the country's new status. 'It's the same kind of stability you have in a graveyard,' he said. 'In a graveyard, no one dies.' " extract…
Trade outlook in context
Fri, Jan 30 2009
The IMF is spouting a stream of press releases (that it calls "World Economic Outlook" revisions) to show…well I'm not sure what. That it's relevant again, I suppose, and ready to take charge. But it's wise to treat their projections with the same care you would any others: a warning sign for me was noticing that some of their revised analysis is based on annualized 3-month percent changes in…
Bailouts could stifle recovery
Wed, Jan 28 2009The problem is well-expressed by Barry Ferguson writing in The Age (of all places):
"Now is the time when companies with unsustainable business models, with outdated product ranges, too much debt, inadequate boards and management, and poor corporate governance, will be exposed. It is a time when legendary economist Joseph Schumpeter's gales of creative destruction do their best work.
The primary…
Now it’s a competition
Wed, Jan 21 2009"The French government said on Tuesday that it would earmark up to euro;6bn ($7.8bn, pound;5.5bn) to a rescue plan for its car industry hit by plunging demand, the credit crunch and a decline in competitiveness."nbsp;nbsp;from: Financial Times
Every new bailout devalues the last by increasing production of cars that need taxpayer funding.
Emission controls not warranted by facts
Tue, Dec 16 2008
Some environmentalists (and The Age newspaper) are predictably crying foul at Kevin Rudd's relatively modest White Paper option of up to 25% or 35% cuts from the estimated business as usual level of Australian GHG emissions in 2020. Nevertheless, the proposed ETS conforms to the government's threat to "reform and transform our economy" (Climate Minister, Penny Wong), by effectively choking it…
The WTO’s objectives
Wed, Nov 26 2008On 11-12 December, the Institute for International Trade will host a conference that Andrew Stoler (its Director) and I have arranged as part of our year-long research project to find a better way to negotiate WTO agriculture agreements.
In a paper he has prepared for the conference on 'Variable Geometries', Professor Peter LLoyd of Melbourne University poses a question about WTO's objectives.…
Transition to a non-carbon economy
Fri, Nov 21 2008The objectives of climate-change mitigation programs such as those in the Garnaut Report or in the Australian Government's absurdly-named 'carbon pollution reduction scheme' cannot be achieved by 2020 or 2050 without a massive, and rapid, transition away from carbon-intensive energy sources of primary energy for base-load power generation, transport etc.
But forcing rapid change in the way we…
Share the love
Mon, Nov 17 2008According to the Reserve Bank's deputy Governor:
"The prospective earnings yield on Australian shares now stands at 11 per cent, almost double the long-term average…When the yield has risen to these levels in the past, the return on shares over the subsequent 10 years has almost always been well above average" David Uren in The AustralianHere's the Governor's speech.
Bombs or bridges?
Wed, Sep 10 2008Billions of dollars spent on armaments would be more productively spent on infrastructure. This would be a less wasteful and much more certain way to maintain Australia's supposed global 'middle power' status (Is that a 'status'? Or is it a bunch of diplomats exercising their vowels?). Our balance of payments plunged back into the red this month because—among other reasons—we cannot ship the…