Posts tagged…Policy
Is it a V or an L-shaped recession?
Thu, Apr 09 2009The case for a "V":
"Aided by substantial policy stimulus, growth in the Chinese economy should begin to accelerate in the first half of 2009 and the US recession should bottom out around mid-year with recovery accelerating to about a 4 percent annual rate by the fourth quarter. Recoveries in other countries will likely lag a little behind those in China and the United States. But, aided by a…
Read more…Piracy and privacy
Thu, Apr 09 2009Although the governments negotiating the ACTA treaty deny that it will propose sanctions for personal copyright violation, there's an increasing supply of that sort of thing, from those same governments.
The French Assemblée Nationale is today expected to adopt a uniquely invasive measure authorizing a 'High Authority' to monitor the Internet use of individuals for copyright violation.
"The law…
Senator Conroy finds his internet filter
Tue, Apr 07 2009This is a major move that effectively (re)nationalizes essential infrastructure. Is that good or only inevitable given the history of mistakes in the regulation of private telecom infrastructure?
One immediate concern with this new direction is that history shows companies with a majority government-ownership in Australia and elsewhere become ferocious rent-seekers (think Qantas and the…
A spoon-full of toxin
Mon, Apr 06 2009When 'Uncle Joe' Stiglitz criticizes a program for 'socializing losses', there must be something seriously wrong.
The Geitner Plan for the U.S. banking system appears on the surface to be a way to create and isloate bad banks. These new institutions will be built by a partnership of government and private investors who will buy-up and hold the 'toxic' assets pending the market placing a firm and…
Renminbi reserve currency?
Mon, Apr 06 2009A development worth watching:
"Economists say the SDR plan is unfeasible for now but see Beijing’s currency swap deals [with Argentina, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, Belarus] as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the renminbi, starting with making it more acceptable for trade and aiming at establishing it as a reserve currency in Asia, something that would also…
Australian share market fall compared
Thu, Apr 02 2009"The most obvious manifestation to the general public of the impact of the financial crisis on Australia has been the decline in the local stock market. From its peak in November 2007 to the lows reached earlier this month, the local market declined by 54 per cent. This fall compares to the peak to trough decline of 57 per cent in the US market, 61 per cent in Europe and 60 per cent in the…
China’s monetary policies
Wed, Apr 01 2009
The People's Bank has an english language site that is becoming essential reading.
The papers and speeches by the Governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, such as this paper on international monetary reform are significant documents. Well-argued, straight-forward, with little of the bluster that has occasionally spoiled China's official account of itself (and is not unknown to our own Dear Leader).
…Lawless streets of Port Moresby
Wed, Apr 01 2009Civil unrest is one of the biggest barriers to development in the Pacific. This is an excellent account.
"Moresby has had enough of its war-zone reputation and there is the merest glimmer that it is picking itself up. As well, the place would improve exponentially if Australians forced aside some of their justified scepticism and chose to revisit their old PNG friends or find new ones." Extract…
How to manage without targets
Wed, Apr 01 2009
Is anyone really surprised that Victoria's biggest public hospitals have been caught manipulating surgery waiting lists?
They're using a variety of devices such as holding surgery clients on 'not ready for treatment' lists to keep the reported surgery waiting times low. Because the Department of Health rewards them for keeping the surgery waiting-lists short. Markets are wonderful, aren't they?…
Rodrik’s many recipes
Tue, Mar 31 2009
Update: Prof. Rodrik says that I've got his examples exactly wrong (see his comment) and that he meant that the World Banks' "globalizers" including Vietnam have outperformed those higher on the Heritage Foundation's index. Well… that certainly makes more sense. My apologies to him—and to you—for the misunderstanding. [2 April, 2009]
I am sympathetic to Dani Rodrik's underlying thesis in his…
Where’s the evidence?
Mon, Mar 30 2009"[Special Minister of State] John Faulkner promised full disclosure. In fact, disclosure has been pitifully inadequate. Access to the modelling underpinning FuelWatch: refused. Access to the model used to evaluate the ETS: refused. Access to the cost-benefit studies underpinning the NBN: refused. Access to the Building Australia Fund's project appraisals: refused. Access to the Treasury's…
The Quiet Coup
Sun, Mar 29 2009If you can't let the banks fail and won't take over their assets, they own you.
"[W]e face at least two major, interrelated problems. The first is a desperately ill banking sector that threatens to choke off any incipient recovery that the fiscal stimulus might generate. The second is a political balance of power that gives the financial sector a veto over public policy [owing to the Geitner…