Posts tagged…Policy
Discounting the Intergenerational Report
Fri, Feb 12 2010"[H]ow often does the IGR [Intergenerational Report], in five pages vaunting public investment in infrastructure, use the term 'cost benefit analysis'? Not once. Clearly, suggesting that public investment only be undertaken when the benefits exceed the costs is no longer politically correct." Extract from Henry Ergas in The AustralianHenry Ergas is—as ever—right on the money. The 2010 IGR has…
Read more…Bad plus bad equals worse
Fri, Apr 17 2009The key piece of bad news, today, from Chapter 3 of the IMF World Economic Outlook
Recessions that are associated with both financial crises and global downturns have been unusually severe and long-lasting. Since 1960, there have been only 6 recessions out of the 122 in the sample that fit this description… On average, these recessions lasted almost two years. Moreover, during these recessions…
Australia’s information deficit
Wed, Apr 15 2009
Australia is falling behind on access to data, thanks to apparently indifferent government at the Federal and State level—and it has nothing to do with proposed NBN. The United States, however, is moving ahead wth plans for the creation of a government-wide data access facility.
data.gov will be managed by Obama's 'Chief Information Officer', Vivek Kundra. Here is an example of what he has…
India says ‘no’
Wed, Apr 15 2009Even IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri considers India is 'very unlikely' to change its opposition to emissions targets (for India).
"'If the question is whether India will take on binding emission reduction commitments, the answer is no. It is morally wrong for us to agree to reduce when 40 percent of Indians do not have access to electricity,' said a member of the Indian delegation to the…
Evidence and muddling through
Wed, Apr 15 2009The difference is that 'muddling through' is a strategy bound to evidence, evaluation, and adaptation. In policy as in business entreprise, grand visions and definitive models, like 'settled science', call for commitment and resist new enquiry or contrary fact.
"Prof Lindblom contrasted what he called the ‘root’ method of decision-making with the ‘branch’ approach. The root method required…
The return on Ruddnet
Tue, Apr 14 2009Let's have a look at the numbers.
Malcolm Turnbull is saying that an optimistic one-year rate of return on the proposed $43 billion of investment in the NBN is
[{(($70 * 12) annual subscription rate times 4.5 million subscribers) minus $260 million in annual costs} divided by the investment of $43 billion]
These are optimistic assumptions, but we can work with them.
"[O]ne thing is very, very…
Strategic outlook for Australia
Mon, Apr 13 2009Defense must have an evidence-basis, just like all other policies. Allowing alarming 'long-tail' scenarios, such as an aggressive Chinese military posture, to drive policy—if that is what the Defense planners have in mind—is like gambling, not strategic planning. We don't have the resources to 'over-insure against a remote…risk', any more than Robert Gates does.
Our defense outlook is benign by…
“What is to be done?”
Sat, Apr 11 2009Lenin recommended it. Now Simon Johnson moves from blaming the elites to organizing against them.
"We have to break up any bank that's 'too big to fail' so that we can have a functional free market. We need serious reform that fixes the root causes in our political and economic system: excessive influence of banks, dangerous compensation systems, and massive consolidation that does nothing to…
How bad is polar ice loss?
Sat, Apr 11 2009
News reports everywhere are picking up the theme of 'alarm' over the extent of ice cover at the poles.
"‘What we’re seeing is very dramatic,’ said Andrew Fleming, remote sensing manager at the British Antarctic Survey. ‘It’s very worrying.’ Scientists believed the effects were linked to the ‘very strong warming’ at the poles, he said. The Antarctic peninsula has warmed by more than 3ºC in the…
French internet law blocked, for now
Fri, Apr 10 2009In a coup de théâtre, the opponents of the internet surveillance bill managed to block it in the Senate on 9 April. But not for long, it seems:
"L'UMP semble vouloir effacer cet affront en faisant revoter au plus vite le projet de loi. 'Le vote négatif de l'Assemblée nationale retarde l'adoption du texte, ça ne le bloque pas. On va repasser le texte avec une lecture à l'Assemblée et une lecture…
Is it a V or an L-shaped recession?
Thu, Apr 09 2009The case for a "V":
"Aided by substantial policy stimulus, growth in the Chinese economy should begin to accelerate in the first half of 2009 and the US recession should bottom out around mid-year with recovery accelerating to about a 4 percent annual rate by the fourth quarter. Recoveries in other countries will likely lag a little behind those in China and the United States. But, aided by a…
Piracy and privacy
Thu, Apr 09 2009Although the governments negotiating the ACTA treaty deny that it will propose sanctions for personal copyright violation, there's an increasing supply of that sort of thing, from those same governments.
The French Assemblée Nationale is today expected to adopt a uniquely invasive measure authorizing a 'High Authority' to monitor the Internet use of individuals for copyright violation.
"The law…