Posts tagged…Garnaut
Rahmstorf rebuffed
Tue, Jan 12 2010The Potsdam Institute physicist whose 2007 paper Ross Garnaut relied on for his assertion that "on the balance of probabilities" CO2-driven warming was accelerating dangerously, has been exposed as a scientific gadfly.
At the time of the publication of Garnaut's interim report, several well-qualified sceptics disputed Rahmstorf's projetions, including David Stockwell, Lucia Liljegren and Steve…
Read more…Garnaut Review Economic Model
Fri, Sep 05 2008
On a quick first reading of the supplementary report, this seems to be the key data related to the modeling results. For the more moderate 550ppm CO2 objective, the costs of a 10% cut in 2000 carbon emissions to 2020 are estimated at 1.1% of GDP (1.8% cut to consumption) comprising a net decrement of about 0.1+% of GNP per year. In other words, the expected net benefits are somewhere toward the…
You need a model?
Fri, Jul 04 2008I can't get a response out of the Garnaut Review website—probably overloaded—to download the Review report. But here's an extract from Prof Garnaut's address to the Press Club on a 'curious turn' in AGW 'dissent':
"The dissent took a curious turn in Australia in 2008, with much prominence being given to assertions that a warming trend had ended over the last decade. This is a question that is…
Science, dogma and dissent: Ross Garnaut’s Heinz Arndt lecture
Mon, Jun 09 2008What a disappointment.
I hoped that Prof. Garnaut would use his Heinz Arndt Lecture to describe the balance he intended to strike in his recommendations between evidence for risky climate change and a growing body of evidence that the risks are low to moderate (at most). Given his well-known views, I expected to find the balance tilted in favor of the former but I hoped to find that it would be…
Statistical analysis of Rhamstorf et al
Fri, Mar 28 2008David Stockwell of Niche Modeling provides a technical assessment of the Rahmstorf et. al. paper that Ross Garnaut's Review relies on. He suggests that the Rahmstorf et. al. may have 'padded' the end of their data series to make their trend analysis more plausible.
Two reasons for caution in climate mitigation
Sun, Mar 23 2008
I can see two reasons for caution about the dramatic action on climate change advocated by the Garnaut Review. First, statistical analysis of temperature trends contradicts claims (from the Review among others) that increases over the last decade are "on track" to meet or exceed IPCC projections. Second, the CO2-linked theories of climate change lack basic plausibility and recent observations…
The Garnaut Climate Review Interim Report—I’m not convinced
Fri, Feb 22 2008
My difficulty with the Interim report of the Garnaut Climate Change Review is that it is headed toward a recommendation that looks disproportionate to the climate risk.
Publicly available data on climate change does not seem to call for extreme measures such as a 70% to 90% cut in Australia's carbon emissions. This data has not been examined by the Garnaut team because it's not their business to…