Posts tagged…Countries
Cheering for ‘democracy’
Tue, Jan 05 2010Rachman—who's normally pretty astute—assesses the emblematic events in Copenhagen as a blow to the U.S. program of 'spreading democracy'.
"As emerging global powers and developing nations, Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey may often feel they have more in common with a rising China than with the democratic US." Extract from Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times
Although I share his sense…
Read more…Plurilateralism… get used to it
Sun, Dec 20 2009
Unless you've been asleep since the mid-1930s (when the League of Nations fell apart), the failures of the UN Climate Convention in Copenhagen or the World Trade Organization in Geneva to reach agreement should come as no surprise.
It's not the end of the world (or even of multilateralism) but it's an historic moment, all the same. I suspect it marks the iconic end of the pax atlantica; the…
The impact of Fiji’s devaluation
Thu, Apr 16 2009
It's not hard to understand the motives. But the devaluation is a gamble that is not guaranteed to pay off.
No doubt, the devaluation had to do with the export sector's poor contribution to income (goods only in the accompanying chart). Devaluation will cut the foreign-currency price of Fiji's exports and possibly increase income in $F—if there is a strong export supply response.
That may be a…
Razzing the Congress party
Thu, Apr 16 2009"[The Indian election] exposes the do-nothing, zero-reform record of Manmohan Singh, prime minister, and his government. More generally, it lays bare India’s huge reform gaps and its brittle, decaying institutions. Finally, it deflates the ‘India hype’ peddled by smooth-talking upper-caste politicians, ambassadors, businessmen, management consultants and some academics"
Extract from an Op Ed by…
Strategic outlook for Australia
Mon, Apr 13 2009Defense must have an evidence-basis, just like all other policies. Allowing alarming 'long-tail' scenarios, such as an aggressive Chinese military posture, to drive policy—if that is what the Defense planners have in mind—is like gambling, not strategic planning. We don't have the resources to 'over-insure against a remote…risk', any more than Robert Gates does.
Our defense outlook is benign by…
Renminbi reserve currency?
Mon, Apr 06 2009A development worth watching:
"Economists say the SDR plan is unfeasible for now but see Beijing’s currency swap deals [with Argentina, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, Belarus] as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the renminbi, starting with making it more acceptable for trade and aiming at establishing it as a reserve currency in Asia, something that would also…
China’s monetary policies
Wed, Apr 01 2009
The People's Bank has an english language site that is becoming essential reading.
The papers and speeches by the Governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, such as this paper on international monetary reform are significant documents. Well-argued, straight-forward, with little of the bluster that has occasionally spoiled China's official account of itself (and is not unknown to our own Dear Leader).
…Competitiveness of U.S. agriculture
Tue, Mar 31 2009
As usual, the export outlook depends more on the dollar exchange-rate than on the impact of recession on underlying demand—at least, from 2010 onwards:
"The main uncertainty for the long run concerns the value of the U.S. dollar compared with currencies of other major trading countries. One possibility is that the dollar will continue to strengthen substantially, especially against the Chinese…
Poles of the trading system
Fri, Jun 20 2008
Simon Evenett has observed that, on the numbers, at least two of the Gang of Four that has dominated the Doha round negotiations since 2006 are not really 'poles' of global trade although they may become more polar in future. What is also notable about the three developing countries in the 'potential poles' group (Brazil, China, India), says Evenett, is that they have relatively little experience…
Obama: don’t tread on me
Mon, Feb 25 2008We can't keep passing unfair trade deals like NAFTA that put special interests over workers' interests (Barack Obama, emphasis added)
Obama's not going to let Mexico or Canada swindle the USA into greater specialization (or wealth) in the North American industrial landscape! He has a plan for preventing change as well as ... um, the other one
I didn't just start criticizing unfair trade deals…
Activities in 2007
Mon, Dec 24 2007
A map (click for a better view), at no particular scale, of some of my activities in 2007. A lot of traveling, some outstanding meals—grilled Croker fish and wild greens in Abuja, barbecue mutton with sweetbreads in Karachi—some fascinating characters, and good friends. There were a couple of marathons (the SPS database; trade & tariff simulations on 51 grains markets) and at least one job that…