Farmers unhappy about CSIRO drought ‘alarmism’
Thu, Aug 07 2008Global issues
Climate
In my experience you can count on farmers to sniff out hype. Even before David Stockwell completed his statistical analysis, the NSW Farmers' Association President thought the CSIRO had exaggerated the problem.
"Association president Jock Laurie says while the Climate Report does say ‘exceptionally high temperatures’ are likely to occur frequently, this does not equate to drought. Alarmist reporting has added confusion and pressure to farm families at a time when they can least afford it. 'We have received a number of calls from members who were extremely agitated, confused and upset about the reports of drought every second year in future.' Mr Laurie said." extract from: Stock & Land
CSIRO Drought Model ‘fails’
Wed, Aug 06 2008Global issues
Climate
David Stockwell at Niche Modeling has completed his analysis of the CSIRO's Exceptional Circumstances Drought Report. His conclusion punctures the hyperbole of it's launch.
"In a statistical re-analysis of the data from the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report, all climate models failed standard internal validation tests for regional droughted area in Australia over the last century. The most worrying failure was that simulations showed increases in droughted area over the last century in all regions, while the observed trends in drought decreased in five of the seven regions identified in the CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report. Therefore there is no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations made in the report. " extract from: Niche Modeling
In a model of transparency that CSIRO could do well to follow, David has posted his R programming as well as access to the data sets that he extracted from CSIRO, so those with the skill can reproduce his results.
Designing a carbon tax
Wed, Aug 06 2008Global issues
Climate
Trade framework
"Experts" are struggling for space in the media to peddle designs for a carbon "pollution" reduction tax. Paul Kelly in the Australian newspaper seems to approve a proposal by Geoff Carmody of Access Economics for a consumption tax in place of a cap-tax-equivalent on production of Australian carbon.
"'Australia can only control its consumption of emissions,' he says. 'Attempts to control Australian production are likely to drive it offshore with less stringent or no policy controls over emissions." extract from: The Australian
Carmody's argument, apparently, is that we're better off setting a consumption tax that will hit imports rather than exports and setting the tax rate to achieve only the 'weighted average' of carbon prices in other developed economies.
But will that really help Australia to weather (probably un-necessary, and even unlikely) global emissions controls?
Monckton’s litany
Fri, Jul 18 2008Global issues
Climate
6 comments
Christopher, Viscount Monkton of Brenchley, is a good scholar and a fine writer. This clever recital pulls no punches but you may feel like responding 'amen' (at least you might…if you were a 'dissenter')
CSIRO’s (ab)use of intellectual property
Fri, Jul 18 2008Global issues
Climate
5 comments
The private abuse of copyright is considered in some industry—and even official—quarters as an epidemic wave of criminal behavior. The evidence for this view is very dubious. But there is another form of copyright abuse that also has a debilitating impact on our economy and our society. That is the claim that governments sometimes make that they are unable to maintain open and accountable standards of decision-making because they must protect some intellectual property or other. This is often arrant nonsense and an excuse to shirk responsibility. But worse, it abuses the copyright system whose objective above all is to balance the public interest in the creation and dissemination of knowledge against the rights of the creator and owner.
The CSIRO has told David Stockwell, a mathematician and climate scientist, that it cannot release temperature and soil-moisture data behind its report to Government on the multi-billion dollar 'Exceptional Circumstances' drought-relief subsidy program "due to restrictions on Intellectual Property". David Stockwell believes, with some reason, that an examination of the data would show that the conclusions drawn in the report are wrong and that the Prime Minister has been misled in his belief that the CSIRO has found a cause for alarm about future drought patterns in Australia.
Here is what the Prime Minister said, last weekend, about the significance of the CSIRO report:
This is how ‘targets’ hit back
Fri, Jul 18 2008Global issues
Climate
The LNG export industry—one of the most important components of Australia's resources export industries—does not qualify for emission permit exemptions because it falls below an artificial threshold in the Green Paper on reducing "Carbon Pollution". This is dumb (euphemism) and will, no doubt, be 'fixed'. But it is an entirely typical target-hurdle fostering target-management (in place of policy compliance), rocketing lobbying costs, and endless target refinement and ad-hoccery.
"Analysis by the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association and by Deutsche Bank experts confirmed Mr Voelte's calculation that LNG would not qualify for permits under the Government's proposed formula." extract from: The Australian
If targets worked… the Soviet Union would still be in the LNG business, too.
Argument for ‘least cost’ emissions policy
Thu, Jul 17 2008Global issues
Climate
Trade framework
Paul Kelly's accurate assessment of the real 'diabolical dilemma'. Read the full article.
"[Overshooting on emissions controls] is a lethal risk for Rudd. His Government is a believer in multilateral idealism and the moral cause of mitigation. The truth, however, is that multilateralism is in serious retreat and idealism in climate change is the fraud of our age. Many senior Australian officials discount the hope of a genuine global agreement …The full success of our policy is beyond our control.
It leads to a final conclusion before the green paper launch: any action taken by Australia must be on a 'least cost basis'. This is the real justification for emissions trading. There is no room for playing politics with mitigating policy, thereby lifting its cost to Australia's economy …" extract from: The Australian (emphasis added)
Climate cure more costly than disease?
Mon, Jul 14 2008Global issues
Climate
Henry Ergas joins the criticism of the alarmism and interestedness of the Garnaut Report recommendations.
"In short, this is a report that costs the problem, but says little or nothing about the costs of its proposed solution. As for its proposed solution, it does not even seek to systematically compare it with alternatives: rather, it acts as if the only options were complete inaction on the one hand, or its version of an ETS on the other. And for all of its 500-plus pages, it is at times uncomfortably thin on analysis, appealing to fears and hopes rather than likelihoods and realities." extract from: The Australian newspaper
The image (click thumbnail) shows the summary table of costs from Chapter 9 of the Garnaut Report.
Whistling in an ill-wind
Tue, Jul 08 2008Global issues
Climate
David Stockwell wondered in an off-line message if there's a way for the 'ordinary Joe' to make some money from emissions trading. If he comes up with something, I hope David tells us about it (although he'd probably be wiser to keep to himself). I can think of a few possibilities but only one sure-fire opportunity…
Assessing Garnaut’s recommendations
Sun, Jul 06 2008Global issues
Climate
By nature, and by the experience of working all my career in public policy, I'm skeptical about grand designs of government. But I'm refining my views on climate change as I go along, as the claims and the evidence change: it's the only rational course. I agree with the Garnaut Report's recommendation that we should take action now in response to the risk that global warming is a serious problem caused in part by human action. I also agree that if the risk is high then postponing action until there is more information would be imprudent at best. If the AGW theory holds, then the forcing is cumulative and we would lose lower cost options by taking action later rather than earlier.
The difficult question is not about early action, it is about the scale of the action. Here, I strongly disagree with the Report's insistence on impending disaster. The weakest element of this Report—as of the whole Review so far— is its interestedness. Ross Garnaut's passion in his speeches and in his introduction to the Review report—which implies that it is disreputable to deny the AGW theory—belies the Review's claim that it accepts the IPCC arguments for AGW 'on the balance of probabilities' and not as a matter of belief (introduction to Chapter 3). But even taken at face value, this claim is no comfort. For the 'balance of probabilities' refers, here, to the Review's use of a logically weak argument from authority ('reputable scientists' are probably right and dissenters are probably wrong) and not to an assessment of the theory itself.
You need a model?
Fri, Jul 04 2008Global issues
Climate
1 comments
I can't get a response out of the Garnaut Review website—probably overloaded—to download the Review report. But here's an extract from Prof Garnaut's address to the Press Club on a 'curious turn' in AGW 'dissent':
"The dissent took a curious turn in Australia in 2008, with much prominence being given to assertions that a warming trend had ended over the last decade. This is a question that is amenable to statistical analysis, and we asked econometricians with expertise in analysis of time series to examine it. Their response, that the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence level produced by any model that does not allow for a warming trend, is reported in Chapter 5 (Box 5.1)". extract from Herald-Sun report
Recent warming is a reality although I'm unconvinced that there has been any alarming degree of warming. I don't say "warming has ended." But the global temperature trend has been such (slightly declining) since 2001 that it presently disconfirms the projections in the IPCC's model-salad. If what the IPCC does is science then we must take the disconfirmation of its projections into account. That doesn't need another model. So far, statistical analysis appears to show that they're wrong.
Update: David Stockwell has a copy of the 'model' to which Prof Garnaut refers. More debate likely to follow.
Second update: In their paper, Drs Breusch and Vahid—the statisticians to whom Prof. Garnaut referred the question of whether warming continues—are unable to rule out a trend in the temperature data (HADCRUT, NOAA, GISS) since 1850. No more than that. They conclude that statistical evidence does not allow them to say anything about the trend "without corroborating data from other sources and close knowledge of the climate system." Taking the analysis a step further, the statisticians find that if they pick a starting date of 1958 i.e. 50 years ago, then the temperature anomaly data since then exceeds the 2-standard-deviations boundary for a projected 'no warming' trend after about 2001. This is their 'model'. But since the 1958 date coincides with a low point in the anomaly data (-0.3 degrees C less than zero in the HADCRUT series) their choice of starting point seems to be a case of 'cherry picking' a date.
Global emission targets: here we go
Tue, Jun 24 2008Global issues
Climate
We are likely to discover where this will lead only after a long process.
"Major carbon dioxide emitters failed to agree on a numerical target for reducing the world's greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2050 even though the final session of a two-day meeting here was extended into Monday morning, conference sources said…The [Major Emitters Group] comprises 16 nations, including China, India and South Korea, and the European Union plus the eight countries that form the G-8. Its first meeting was held at the initiative of the United States in September. The participating nations account for about 80 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions." extract from: Daily Yomiuri
The history of targets in multilateral agreements (the Montreal Protocol notwithstanding) is far from encouraging. It would be foolish to anticipate the outcome by precipitate action on a futile, autonomous 'cap and trade' target. If a precautionary approach is what Australians want—because dread convinces them to accept Pascal's wager—then we should begin cautiously, with small, low-cost steps. With luck, we may find out they're not needed before we go very far.
Sea level rising by ‘paddling’ levels over a century
Thu, Jun 19 2008Global issues
Climate
updated:The TV news in Melbourne tonight leads with alarming claims about the potential consequences of sea-level rises. The full ABC online report quotes "a paper published today in Nature" that I can't find on the Nature website. But the quoted data don't seem all that worrying: a rise of 0.52mm 1.5mm per year over 42 years to 2003—which adds up to a total rise of something less than an inch just over two inches. [Trust the ABC to get the story wrong: here's an accurate account of the study.]
Climate Change, Trade and Competitiveness
Sat, Jun 14 2008Global issues
Climate
The papers from a recent Brookings Institution conference on the trade, production and 'competitiveness' impacts of emissions controls and border-tax adjustments are now available (thanks to Simon Lester for the pointer). There's some evidence that border-tax adjustments related to 'carbon taxes' (at feasible rates) would be more trouble to administer and collect than they'd be worth.
The empricist’s telescope
Thu, Jun 12 2008Global issues
Climate
"E pur si muove". It seems there's no proof that Galileo ever said this ("And yet…it [the earth] moves, after all").
But it's one of those stories that should be true. Dragged before the Inquisition, Galileo was forced to recant his apparent dissent from the "settled science" of the unmoving earth and the orbiting sun. If he didn't mutter this famous phrase after his recantation, then he should have. It epitomizes his contribution to one of Western Europe's greatest intellectual legacies—the scientific method.Science, dogma and dissent: Ross Garnaut’s Heinz Arndt lecture
Mon, Jun 09 2008Global issues
Climate
9 comments
What a disappointment.
I hoped that Prof. Garnaut would use his Heinz Arndt Lecture to describe the balance he intended to strike in his recommendations between evidence for risky climate change and a growing body of evidence that the risks are low to moderate (at most). Given his well-known views, I expected to find the balance tilted in favor of the former but I hoped to find that it would be moderated by recognition of the latter. Unfortunately, Prof. Garnaut paid no attention to any scientific facts and made no attempt to strike a balanced risk assessment.
Instead, what really struck me was what the speech implied about the religious nature of Prof. Garnaut's own adherence to the 'climate-alarm' view.
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Peter Gallagher is a leading Australian consultant on trade and public policy.[bio].
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There could be four
Henry Gao asks a very pertinent question about a development in the management of WTO that might easily be missed (unless you're looking)
"Will this 'one country, two candidates' arrangement work in the future?" extract from: WTO and China Blog
Where our $70m went
The unnecessary Rudd/Brubmy bribe to build 'green' cars in Victoria is less than 2% of their current profit
"[Toyota] yesterday announced net earnings of Y356.6 billion ($3.57 billion) for the three months to June 30 -- the first quarter of the Japanese financial year -- and maintained its full-year profit forecast at Y1.25 trillion." extract from: The Australian
Krugman loses his kool
Is it my imagination, or is his NYT portrait looking a little crazed these days?
"The only way we’re going to get action [to cut carbon emissions], I’d suggest, is if those who stand in the way of action come to be perceived as not just wrong but immoral." extract from: NYTimes.com
This sort of shameful nonsense leads pretty soon to talk about 'patriotism' and 'moral majorities'.
No need for alarm about diet
Sandy Szwarc analyses the data from the latest NHANES survey of US dietary trends (ignored by most media).
"The new data doesnt support the need for public policies to address unhealthy gluttonous eating, and prohibit access to fattening foods. It does, however, provide clues that the anti-obesity hysteria might be contributing to risks for adverse effects, especially for young people." extract from: Junkfood Science
You can find the summary of the data here.
Holly Golightly
Dorien Leigh, the likely model for Holly Golightly in Truman Capote's story of Breakfast at Tiffanys died last month aged 91 in Virginia.
Spencer’s ‘smoking gun’
[W]e now have new satellite evidence which strongly suggests that…the real climate system appears to be dominated by negative feedbacks’—instead of the positive feedbacks…
Another Galilean ‘dissenter’
David Evans, ex-GreenHouse Office:
"The world has spent $50 billion on global warming since 1990, and we have not found any actual evidence that carbon emissions cause global warming … Computer models and theoretical calculations are not evidence, they are just theory." extract from: The Australian
It’s not just China, India
Germany's Finance Ministry, too, is critical of a plan to cut emissions that is more gradual than proposed in Kevin Rudd's Green Paper.
"The ministry was particularly critical of the EU's goal to cut the quota of emissions trading permits by 21 percent, compared to 2005 levels, saying this would cost Germany both jobs and growth." extract from: Deutsche Welle
The G-Other
I wonder if they're any better at meaningful collaboration than the G-8? No sign of it in this official snapshot taken in Sapporo, Japan, before their meeting with the G-8 in July, 2008.
A valentine in July
Need a reason to love aussie shares? Here it is—from the RBA's chart pack. Note the price indices relative to other markets, the consistently good value P/E, the high dividend yield. What's not to love? Forget the bears… buy a bit of future growth.
The ‘fat bomb’
Australians are not even near the top ranks of the world's fatties, despite the alarmist claims in the press. Here is the latest data from the World Health Organization. There's much more on Sandy Szwarc's Junkfood Science blog
| Obese Males (BMI >30): Latest Year | % | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nauru | 79.3 |
| 2 | French Polynesia | 36.4 |
| 3 | United States of America | 31.1 |
| 4 | Kuwait | 27.5 |
| 5 | Saudi Arabia | 26.4 |
| 6 | Iraq | 26.2 |
| 7 | United Arab Emirates | 25.6 |
| 8 | Malta | 25 |
| 9 | Bahrain | 23.3 |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 22.6 |
| 11 | New Zealand | 21.9 |
| 12 | Croatia | 21.6 |
| 13 | Israel | 19.8 |
| 14 | Hungary | 19.6 |
| 15 | Chile | 19 |
| 16 | Mexico | 18.6 |
| 17 | Canada | 17.9 |
| 18 | Australia | 17.8 |
| 19 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 16.5 |
| 20 | Slovenia | 16.5 |
| Source: WHO (http://www.who.int/bmi/index.jsp) | ||
Aids campaign a moral panic
"It is time to recognise that the Aids scare was one of the most distorted, duplicitous and cynical public health panics of the past 30 years. Instead of being treated as a sexually transmitted disease that affected certain high-risk communities, and which should be vociferously [sic, 'vigorously'?] tackled by the medical authorities, the 'war against Aids' was turned into moral crusade." extract from: Brendan O'Neill, Guardian.co.ukSound familiar?
Real food price below historic high
The documents for the FAO Conference on Food Security show that real food prices (deflated by the index of manufactures exports) have spiked but are still some way below their peak in the 1970's.Melbourne in autumn
Another tricky dick
"In 1995, I went to Havana to try to interview [con-man Robert] Vesco in jail. I failed, but found his partner in the pharmaceutical enterprise, Donald M. Nixon, widely known as Don Don, who happened to be a nephew of the former US president. Proudly showing me a custom-made Havana cigar in the shape of a large penis, complete with testicles, Don Don told me: ‘Bob [Vesco] is the most brilliant man I’ve ever met’" extract from: Financial Times Obituaries
David Brooks: The Farm Bill
"My colleagues on The Times's editorial page called the bill 'disgraceful.' My former colleagues at The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page ripped it as a 'scam.' Yet such is the logic of collective action; the bill is certain to become law…" extract from: Talking Versus Doing - David Brooks - New York Times