Transition to a non-carbon economy

The objectives of climate-change mitigation programs such as those in the Garnaut Report or in the Australian Government's absurdly-named 'carbon pollution reduction scheme' cannot be achieved by 2020 or 2050 without a massive, and rapid, transition away from carbon-intensive energy sources of primary energy for base-load power generation, transport etc.

But forcing rapid change in the way we power production and consumption across the economy —for example, by means of carbon-quota (or tax) penalties— will cut growth and will redistribute resources to less productive sectors such as government and (probably) some households. Certainly, the emission controls will affect business and consumer plans, but the wealth impacts also risk undermining our capacity to invest in the infrastructure necessary for an eventual energy transition.

Prof. Vaclav Smil argues that the inertia of energy systems is much greater than these 'transformational' programs acknowledge. Unlike information systems that the micro-processor revolutionized within the span of half a working-life, a transition in energy systems takes generations because it requires fundamental changes in large-scale 'cooperative' infrastructure such as transmission networks as well as in the organization of production and consumption.

"The historical verdict is unassailable: because of the requisite technical and infrastructural imperatives and because of numerous (and often entirely unforeseen) socio-economic adjustments, energy transitions in large economies and on a global scale are inherently protracted affairs. That is why, barring some extraordinary commitments and actions, none of the promises for greatly accelerated energy transitions will be realized, and during the next decade none of the new energy sources and prime movers will make a major difference by capturing 20 percent to 25 percent of its respective market. A world without fossil fuel combustion is highly desirable and, to be optimistic, our collective determination, commitment, and persistence could accelerate its arrival—but getting there will demand not only high cost but also considerable patience: coming energy transitions will unfold across decades, not years."  The American