Tea leaves

If this is not merely a temporary effect of the stimulus but the start of a long-term shift of industrial production away from China's coast it would not be a surprise to find that it was oriented more strongly toward supplying domestic demand than export markets. Transport and handling costs, for example, would make domestic markets…

Budget transparency turns murky

On the biggest single program item, Defense—a staggering 2.3% of GDP or $27 billion dollars next year alone—it seems to be a case of re-negging and obscurity.

Two strikes from recession, not three

"The challenge for the government now is that whereas Hawke and Keating had ’86 terms of trade, ’87 stock market crash, ’90 recession, we’ve had all three, in effect, within the space of about a year and all feeding off each other in various kind of negative synergy ways." Extract from Business Spectator interview with Finance…

Scary pictures of a deep recession

The charts are interactive. You can pick your own poison, if you follow the link.

Discounting the Intergenerational Report

Why do we need an IGR that merely regurgitates what the Government has already claimed about its own policies? An inter-generational report must be an independent and rigorous review of the evidence about policy outcomes to be of any use in the necessary debates about growing our wealth or maximising our opportunities. The current edition is…