Assessing Garnaut’s recommendations
Sun, Jul 06 2008Global issues
Climate
By nature, and by the experience of working all my career in public policy, I'm skeptical about grand designs of government. But I'm refining my views on climate change as I go along, as the claims and the evidence change: it's the only rational course. I agree with the Garnaut Report's recommendation that we should take action now in response to the risk that global warming is a serious problem caused in part by human action. I also agree that if the risk is high then postponing action until there is more information would be imprudent at best. If the AGW theory holds, then the forcing is cumulative and we would lose lower cost options by taking action later rather than earlier.
The difficult question is not about early action, it is about the scale of the action. Here, I strongly disagree with the Report's insistence on impending disaster. The weakest element of this Report—as of the whole Review so far— is its interestedness. Ross Garnaut's passion in his speeches and in his introduction to the Review report—which implies that it is disreputable to deny the AGW theory—belies the Review's claim that it accepts the IPCC arguments for AGW 'on the balance of probabilities' and not as a matter of belief (introduction to Chapter 3). But even taken at face value, this claim is no comfort. For the 'balance of probabilities' refers, here, to the Review's use of a logically weak argument from authority ('reputable scientists' are probably right and dissenters are probably wrong) and not to an assessment of the theory itself.
You need a model?
Fri, Jul 04 2008Global issues
Climate
1 comments
I can't get a response out of the Garnaut Review website—probably overloaded—to download the Review report. But here's an extract from Prof Garnaut's address to the Press Club on a 'curious turn' in AGW 'dissent':
"The dissent took a curious turn in Australia in 2008, with much prominence being given to assertions that a warming trend had ended over the last decade. This is a question that is amenable to statistical analysis, and we asked econometricians with expertise in analysis of time series to examine it. Their response, that the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence level produced by any model that does not allow for a warming trend, is reported in Chapter 5 (Box 5.1)". extract from Herald-Sun report
Recent warming is a reality although I'm unconvinced that there has been any alarming degree of warming. I don't say "warming has ended." But the global temperature trend has been such (slightly declining) since 2001 that it presently disconfirms the projections in the IPCC's model-salad. If what the IPCC does is science then we must take the disconfirmation of its projections into account. That doesn't need another model. So far, statistical analysis appears to show that they're wrong.
Update: David Stockwell has a copy of the 'model' to which Prof Garnaut refers. More debate likely to follow.
Second update: In their paper, Drs Breusch and Vahid—the statisticians to whom Prof. Garnaut referred the question of whether warming continues—are unable to rule out a trend in the temperature data (HADCRUT, NOAA, GISS) since 1850. No more than that. They conclude that statistical evidence does not allow them to say anything about the trend "without corroborating data from other sources and close knowledge of the climate system." Taking the analysis a step further, the statisticians find that if they pick a starting date of 1958 i.e. 50 years ago, then the temperature anomaly data since then exceeds the 2-standard-deviations boundary for a projected 'no warming' trend after about 2001. This is their 'model'. But since the 1958 date coincides with a low point in the anomaly data (-0.3 degrees C less than zero in the HADCRUT series) their choice of starting point seems to be a case of 'cherry picking' a date.
Global emission targets: here we go
Tue, Jun 24 2008Global issues
Climate
We are likely to discover where this will lead only after a long process.
"Major carbon dioxide emitters failed to agree on a numerical target for reducing the world's greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2050 even though the final session of a two-day meeting here was extended into Monday morning, conference sources said…The [Major Emitters Group] comprises 16 nations, including China, India and South Korea, and the European Union plus the eight countries that form the G-8. Its first meeting was held at the initiative of the United States in September. The participating nations account for about 80 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions." extract from: Daily Yomiuri
The history of targets in multilateral agreements (the Montreal Protocol notwithstanding) is far from encouraging. It would be foolish to anticipate the outcome by precipitate action on a futile, autonomous 'cap and trade' target. If a precautionary approach is what Australians want—because dread convinces them to accept Pascal's wager—then we should begin cautiously, with small, low-cost steps. With luck, we may find out they're not needed before we go very far.
McCain and Obama on ethanol subsidies and tariffs
Mon, Jun 23 2008Global issues
Trade framework
Trade politics
Where is this going? I'm with McCain on this, so far. But it's always worrying to see political candidates engaging on fuel subsidies. The moral danger alert swings to the farthest end of the spectrum.
"'We made a series of mistakes by not adopting a sustainable energy policy, one of which is the subsidies for corn ethanol, which I warned in Iowa were going to destroy the market” and contribute to inflation, Mr. McCain said this month in an interview with a Brazilian newspaper, O Estado de São Paulo. “Besides, it is wrong,” he added, to tax Brazilian-made sugar cane ethanol, “which is much more efficient than corn ethanol.”
Mr. Obama, in contrast, favors the subsidies, some of which end up in the hands of the same oil companies he says should be subjected to a windfall profits tax. In the name of helping the United States build “energy independence,” he also supports the tariff, which some economists say may well be illegal under the World Trade Organization’s rules but which his advisers say is not." extract from NY Times
Here's a brief, balanced primer from the NYT on U.S. taxes and subsidies on ethanol.
Six out of ten in UK doubt climate change is ‘settled science’
Sun, Jun 22 2008First it was the Irish rejecting an overblown and incomprehensible Lisbon treaty on the consolidation of the EU's political machinery. Now it's the British public who are failing to live up to their leaders' expectations.
"Ipsos MORI polled 1,039 adults and found that six out of 10 agreed that 'many scientific experts still question if humans are contributing to climate change', and that four out of 10 'sometimes think climate change might not be as bad as people say'. In both cases, another 20 per cent were not convinced either way. Despite this, three quarters still professed to be concerned about climate change."extract from The Guardian
Of course, they're right that there are many serious scientists who question various aspects of the science in the IPCC reports and who reject many of its conclusions. But it's surprising to see the strength of the British public's skepticism—which seems to have strengthened since the same question was asked last year. It's almost enough to make one believe in democracy.
More signs of Doha Round’s demise
Sat, Jun 21 2008Trade framework
WTO
Relentless determination (or mad optimism) from the Director-General notwithstanding, the vital signs of the WTO's Doha round continue to deteriorate while even erstwhile friends are starting to mutter—sensibly—about pulling the tubes before the patient becomes an embarrassing stink. Disaffected connections, of course, have no hesitation in pronouncing the final sentence:
BRUSSELS (Thomson Financial) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy ruled out a free-trade deal at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) after Ireland's rejection of the European Union (EU)'s Lisbon treaty in a referendum. 'It would be highly unrealistic to keep wanting to negotiate a deal where we haven't received anything on services, nothing on industry... and which would cut farm output by 20 percent while 800 million people are dying of hunger,' he told journalists here in the early hours of Friday morning. 'Frankly, there's only one person who thinks like that and it's (EU Trade Commissioner) Peter Mandelson and it's not France's position,' Sarkozy added. 'I say it in the clearest way, for us, on this basis, it's No.' extract from: Forbes [emphasis added]
Obama re-designs his message on trade
Sat, Jun 21 2008Global issues
Trade framework
Trade politics
If your theory is that Obama's aggressive stance on trade agreements including NAFTA and MFN for China was a tactic designed to un-hinge the Clinton-Labor axis in the competition for the Democrat nomination, this partial recantation on NAFTA will probably leave you feeling you read him right. But it leaves many questions about his policies hanging in the air.
Poles of the trading system
Fri, Jun 20 2008Global issues
Trade framework
WTO
Simon Evenett has observed that, on the numbers, at least two of the Gang of Four that has dominated the Doha round negotiations since 2006 are not really 'poles' of global trade although they may become more polar in future. What is also notable about the three developing countries in the 'potential poles' group (Brazil, China, India), says Evenett, is that they have relatively little experience of reciprocal trade liberalization in GATT/WTO or in regional agreements.
Sea level rising by ‘paddling’ levels over a century
Thu, Jun 19 2008Global issues
Climate
updated:The TV news in Melbourne tonight leads with alarming claims about the potential consequences of sea-level rises. The full ABC online report quotes "a paper published today in Nature" that I can't find on the Nature website. But the quoted data don't seem all that worrying: a rise of 0.52mm 1.5mm per year over 42 years to 2003—which adds up to a total rise of something less than an inch just over two inches. [Trust the ABC to get the story wrong: here's an accurate account of the study.]
Climate Change, Trade and Competitiveness
Sat, Jun 14 2008Global issues
Climate
The papers from a recent Brookings Institution conference on the trade, production and 'competitiveness' impacts of emissions controls and border-tax adjustments are now available (thanks to Simon Lester for the pointer). There's some evidence that border-tax adjustments related to 'carbon taxes' (at feasible rates) would be more trouble to administer and collect than they'd be worth.
The empricist’s telescope
Thu, Jun 12 2008Global issues
Climate
"E pur si muove". It seems there's no proof that Galileo ever said this ("And yet…it [the earth] moves, after all").
But it's one of those stories that should be true. Dragged before the Inquisition, Galileo was forced to recant his apparent dissent from the "settled science" of the unmoving earth and the orbiting sun. If he didn't mutter this famous phrase after his recantation, then he should have. It epitomizes his contribution to one of Western Europe's greatest intellectual legacies—the scientific method.Science, dogma and dissent: Ross Garnaut’s Heinz Arndt lecture
Mon, Jun 09 2008Global issues
Climate
9 comments
What a disappointment.
I hoped that Prof. Garnaut would use his Heinz Arndt Lecture to describe the balance he intended to strike in his recommendations between evidence for risky climate change and a growing body of evidence that the risks are low to moderate (at most). Given his well-known views, I expected to find the balance tilted in favor of the former but I hoped to find that it would be moderated by recognition of the latter. Unfortunately, Prof. Garnaut paid no attention to any scientific facts and made no attempt to strike a balanced risk assessment.
Instead, what really struck me was what the speech implied about the religious nature of Prof. Garnaut's own adherence to the 'climate-alarm' view.
A ‘secret’ copyright treaty
Thu, Jun 05 2008Global issues
3 comments
In February this year, the Australian government joined negotiations with a number of other developed economies on a proposed ACTA (Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement). The "negotiations"—if that's what they are, they seem more like a drafting convention—are being conducted behind closed doors in Geneva. There has been little information from the Australian government on the benefits for Australia of an ACTA or on its potential provisions other than this background paper on the website of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). Nor has any information been offered on submissions that Australia might have made to the parties.
I think the process of creating this treaty is likely to be harmful to the international trading system. As to it's content—who knows? Speculation tends to plausible suggestions of intrusive, expensive, overbearing enforcement. The rationale for the treaty, however, is implausible (see below). There is every reason to think that the ACTA proposal is being driven by copyright zealots who have no interest in the public interest balance that each jurisdiction expresses in its copyright laws. Their pursuit of global copyright standards and enforcement is likely to be motivated by the excessive returns that they achieved—or at least, expected—from the WTO's 1994 TRIPS agreement.
Easterly vs the Growth Commission
Mon, Jun 02 2008Global issues
The Growth Commission report has been described by David Warsh as an orphan of the World Bank's former regime (under Wolfowitz). Now Bill Easterly claims its reductionist expertism—abandoning all grand theories of development—is also an empty promise. There is at least one general principle that can be discerned in every case of successful development:
"Confirming Hayek, systems that give more liberty to individuals – featuring both more economic and political freedoms – are associated with much less poverty. The evidence for this comes from both history (for example old, despotic, poor Europe compared with modern, free, rich Europe) and cross-country comparisons (for example South Korea compared with North Korea, former West Germany compared with East, New Zealand compared with Zimbabwe). This alternative paradigm has a much smaller role for experts, because experts cannot direct or impose freedom from the top down (or else it would not be freedom)." extract from: Bill Easterly in the Financial Times
Earlier Entries
You'll find a complete list of entries here. You could also search by keywords.
About
Peter Gallagher is a leading Australian consultant on trade and public policy.[bio].
Other things
Site down-time
My apologies for a 48-hour hiatus, on 26-27 June, caused by a catastrophic disk-array crash at my server-host.
The ‘fat bomb’
Australians are not even near the top ranks of the world's fatties, despite the alarmist claims in the press. Here is the latest data from the World Health Organization. There's much more on Sandy Szwarc's Junkfood Science blog
| Obese Males (BMI >30): Latest Year | % | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nauru | 79.3 |
| 2 | French Polynesia | 36.4 |
| 3 | United States of America | 31.1 |
| 4 | Kuwait | 27.5 |
| 5 | Saudi Arabia | 26.4 |
| 6 | Iraq | 26.2 |
| 7 | United Arab Emirates | 25.6 |
| 8 | Malta | 25 |
| 9 | Bahrain | 23.3 |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 22.6 |
| 11 | New Zealand | 21.9 |
| 12 | Croatia | 21.6 |
| 13 | Israel | 19.8 |
| 14 | Hungary | 19.6 |
| 15 | Chile | 19 |
| 16 | Mexico | 18.6 |
| 17 | Canada | 17.9 |
| 18 | Australia | 17.8 |
| 19 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 16.5 |
| 20 | Slovenia | 16.5 |
| Source: WHO (http://www.who.int/bmi/index.jsp) | ||
Aids campaign a moral panic
"It is time to recognise that the Aids scare was one of the most distorted, duplicitous and cynical public health panics of the past 30 years. Instead of being treated as a sexually transmitted disease that affected certain high-risk communities, and which should be vociferously [sic, 'vigorously'?] tackled by the medical authorities, the 'war against Aids' was turned into moral crusade." extract from: Brendan O'Neill, Guardian.co.ukSound familiar?
Real food price below historic high
The documents for the FAO Conference on Food Security show that real food prices (deflated by the index of manufactures exports) have spiked but are still some way below their peak in the 1970's.Melbourne in autumn
Another tricky dick
"In 1995, I went to Havana to try to interview [con-man Robert] Vesco in jail. I failed, but found his partner in the pharmaceutical enterprise, Donald M. Nixon, widely known as Don Don, who happened to be a nephew of the former US president. Proudly showing me a custom-made Havana cigar in the shape of a large penis, complete with testicles, Don Don told me: ‘Bob [Vesco] is the most brilliant man I’ve ever met’" extract from: Financial Times Obituaries
David Brooks: The Farm Bill
"My colleagues on The Times's editorial page called the bill 'disgraceful.' My former colleagues at The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page ripped it as a 'scam.' Yet such is the logic of collective action; the bill is certain to become law…" extract from: Talking Versus Doing - David Brooks - New York Times
Gin, Television, and Social Surplus
Clay Shirky's clever twist on a familiar point about the 'social surplus' frittered away watching television (but not by Wikipedia?).
"And television watching? Two hundred billion hours, in the U.S. alone, every year. Put another way, now that we have a unit, that's 2,000 Wikipedia projects a year spent watching television. Or put still another way, in the U.S., we spend 100 million hours every weekend, just watching the ads. This is a pretty big surplus…"
“F**k” and the OED
A foolish overreaction
"Over the past five years I have become increasingly concerned at the scaremongering of the climate alarmists, which has led the governments of Europe to commit themselves to a drastic reduction in carbon emissions, regardless of the economic cost of doing so. "("FT.com)
Solar-cycle link to cloud cover questioned
Statistical analysis of Rhamstorf et al
David Stockwell of Niche Modeling provides a technical assessment of the Rahmstorf et. al. paper that Ross Garnaut's Review relies on. He suggests that the Rahmstorf et. al. may have 'padded' the end of their data series to make their trend analysis more plausible.