Obama makes Bush look good
On farm subsidies at least. Here's the "Change" guy again arguing for more of the same
"I applaud the Senate's passage today of the Farm Bill, which will provide America's hard-working farmers and ranchers with more support and more predictability… This bill is far from perfect. I believe in tighter payment limits and a ban on packer ownership of livestock… But with so much at stake, we cannot make the perfect the enemy of the good." From Obama press release
Here's what the White House says—accurately in my view— is wrong with this awful legislation that Bush says he will veto (over the fold …)
Climate models do not justify even precautionary action
In an article that is itself a model of its kind, Patrick Frank shows that the documented uncertainties in General Circulation Models (GCMs) are so large that it is impossible they could make falsifiable predictions of the climate, even over the next few years. Illusory precision in the IPCC's trend lines, he points out, does not amount to accuracy and does not support the sort of precautionary action that the Garnaut Review seems set to recommend.
More trade horrors from the US campaign trail
Obama's policy, it appears, is to enforce precautionary action to reduce carbon-emissions by means of trade sanctions: a policy that the Europeans have prudently disowned.
"Ultimately, the solution to global climate change is going to be mediated through the lens of global trade. Sen. Obama has been supportive of mechanisms that have the U.S. take a first step, and if after a period of years other nations are not acting in what is deemed to be a commensurate responsible manner, look to our trade laws to try to ensure that there's no inequity or competitive disadvantage imposed on U.S. businesses. The idea that was initiated by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, in which importers of energy-intensive products would be required to purchase permits for the carbon embedded in those products -- the details need to be fleshed out, but that seems to be a reasonable approach to level the playing field, if we get there."(Obama energy adviser Jason Grumet)
Does trade with China help the poor?
One focus of the economic debate (if that's what it is) in the battle for the Democrat nomination in the United States seems to be on the impact of trade—read: China—on jobs for the low-income group. But that's only one side of the story. The other side is pretty interesting, too.We examine the role played by Chinese exports in explaining the lower inflation of the poor. Since Chinese exports are concentrated in low-quality non-durable products that are heavily purchased by poorer Americans, we find that about one third of the relative price drops faced by the poor are associated with rising Chinese imports.Broda and Romalis
Australia’s export performance—should we be worried?
The Australian government's Review of Export Policies and Programs has apparently been prompted by concerns about export performance.
"While exports exhibited strong growth in the period 1980-2001, reflecting technological changes and important domestic policy initiatives such as the lowering of tariff barriers and the introduction of pro-competition policies, in recent years there has been a marked deterioration in the performance of Australian exports."(Mortimer review)
Australia's terms-of-trade have strengthened, due to demand for minerals and food commodities. What has led to the apparent drop in export performance? (Imports are doing fine...)
A ‘magic’ recipe for global food shortages
There is no 'famine' nor even a long-term food scarcity. But poor people are paying more for food—when they can get it—than they should because governments have screwed-up. There is a well-attested solution to this problem, that looks like magic. You can have your cake and eat it too, with both higher prices for producers and lower prices and better supply for consumers.
New Zealand copyright reform
Is it too soon to hope the tide is turning against the abuse of copyright privilege at last? A report of consumer-friendly copyright reform that preserves fair dealing rights, from across the Tasman:
“Unlike the DMCA in the US, the new [New-Zealand] law allows people to bypass DRM if the intended use is legitimate, it explicitly allows format shifting and timeshifting, and it refuses to protect region-coding of movies and games."(Wired.com)
More here from Michael Geist, Univerity of Ottawa professor of internet and e-commerce law.
Would ‘critical mass’ agreements in WTO be ‘fissile’ or ‘fusional’?
Here is the paper I presented today to the Melbourne University Center for Public Policy seminar on the Future of the Multilateral Trade System. It asks would 'critical mass' agreements—as recommended by the Warwick Commission—reinforce ('fuse') the WTO's Single Undertaking or would they tend to pull it apart ('fission')? I welcome your comments.
Obama would have opposed NAFTA, CAFTA and China’s membership of WTO
Analysts who criticized Obama's trade policies as protectionist and silly were themselves attacked for taking mere campaign rhetoric too seriously. Jagdish Bhagwati in the FT offered five reasons to be reassured about Obama's trade credentials. But it's impossible to be sanguine about the remarks in this speech to the AFL-CIO in Pennsylvania. If he means them we should be worried by his bizarre, conspiratorial view of United States trade policies. If he says these things but doesn't believe them then we can be no less worried (about the credibility of his platform).
Symposium: Future of the Multilateral Trade System
Monday, 7 April 2008 at the Center for Public Policy at the University of Melbourne. The team of analytical 'heavy-hitters'—I'm sure they love being called that—who served on the Warwick Commission will conduct a full-day symposium on why WTO is in such a mess (or not). I'll be speaking, too, on 'critical mass' agreements and whether they'll lead an explosionin the WTO. Please come…Program over the fold.
Two reasons for caution in climate mitigation
I can see two reasons for caution about the dramatic action on climate change advocated by the Garnaut Review. First, statistical analysis of temperature trends contradicts claims (from the Review among others) that increases over the last decade are "on track" to meet or exceed IPCC projections. Second, the CO2-linked theories of climate change lack basic plausibility and recent observations (update: challenged) have failed to find a 'characteristic' atmospheric effect predicted by the CO2 models.
Obama’s policies called “protectionist and silly”
In a review by two UK economists of Obama's support for the "Patriot Employer Act"
"Sen. Barack Obama’s proposal is reactionary, populist, xenophobic and just plain silly. It is time for him to stop pandering and to show the world that hope and reason are not mutually exclusive. Instead of increased protectionism, the United States might increase its competitiveness by sensible investments in infrastructure and education."(The dangerous protectionism of Barack Obama)
I agree with their criticisms. Speculation about WTO compliance is intriguing—but I think the economic penalties would be greater than any legal sanction.
The astonishing Julio Lacarte and 60 years of GATT
No one better represents the fun, dedication or optimism of the people who created the multilateral trading system than Ambassador Julio Lacarte Muró. This recent
video interview with him, recalling his particpation in the Havana Conference (1947) that by it’s ‘failure’ gave birth to the GATT, is a reminder that the goals and principles of that long-ago era still shape our world and promise us a better one. They could have no better ambassador than the eternally smooth Julio Lacarte.
I love his remark about Havana having been a ‘lively town’ in 1947. I bet it was: the Conference lasted 4 months!
Obama: don’t tread on me
We can't keep passing unfair trade deals like NAFTA that put special interests over workers' interests (Barack Obama, emphasis added)
Obama's not going to let Mexico or Canada swindle the USA into greater specialization (or wealth) in the North American industrial landscape! He has a plan for preventing change as well as ... um, the other one
